During a week when major assets like gold and the Nasdaq 100 posted gains, Bitcoin significantly lagged behind. The recent divergence in Bitcoin’s performance suggests that the asset is behaving as neither a risky nor a safe-haven asset.
According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin’s price fell by about 2.09% over the past seven days. This occurred during a period when gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, rose 4.85%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index, considered a risk-on asset, gained 1.34%.
For most of the year, Bitcoin had shown a strong correlation with the Nasdaq 100, typically rising and falling alongside it. This relationship continued at the beginning of last week.
Optimism prevailed until Tuesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted during the October FOMC meeting at a potential rate cut and the possible end of Quantitative Tightening (QT). These comments produced modest gains for both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.
However, starting around 09:00 UTC on October 15, the correlation broke sharply. From that point, the Nasdaq 100 ended the week up 0.44%, while Bitcoin fell 3.71%.
Leverage Liquidation Cited as Main Cause On-chain analysts point to the major crypto crash on October 10, when more than $19 billion in liquidations occurred, triggering widespread fear in the market.
CryptoQuant analyst TeddyVision highlighted two distinct trends between August 1 and mid-October. By analyzing the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of stablecoin net inflows, he found that USDC inflows to spot exchanges—typically used for direct purchases—had decreased.
Meanwhile, USDT inflows to derivatives exchanges, often used as collateral, had increased. This indicates a decline in capital used for actual asset purchases, while liquidity supporting leveraged derivatives like futures and perpetual contracts rose.
The Role of Synthetic Demand This analysis suggests that recent price increases were not driven by organic spot demand, but rather by synthetic positions linked to speculative leverage, derivatives activity, and ETF-related capital rotation.
The October 10 crash likely erased this speculative buying pressure instantly, explaining why Bitcoin failed to rally alongside the recovering Nasdaq 100.
Geopolitical Optimism and Altcoin Strength Bitcoin showed a slight rebound on Sunday, briefly rising above $108,000 for the first time since the downturn. For Bitcoin to successfully follow the Nasdaq’s recovery this week, attention must shift back to easing U.S.–China trade tensions, which previously drove the price down from $122,000 to $100,000.
The overall mood remains one of cautious optimism. In a Friday interview, President Donald Trump said he believed the 100% tariff on China was “not sustainable,” suggesting the steep tariffs were merely a negotiation tactic aimed at securing concessions on rare-earth exports.
Treasury Secretary Scott Besent is set to hold working-level meetings this week in Malaysia with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, laying the groundwork for a potential U.S.–China summit at the APEC meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, on October 31.
Despite Bitcoin’s two-week decline, investor sentiment remains resilient, as evidenced by the strong recovery in altcoins. While BTC fell about 2%, ETH rose 5.96% and SOL gained 7.12%, indicating that lower-cap altcoins are rebounding faster than the leading cryptocurrency.
Outlook: Macro Indicators and Key Data This week will feature several important macroeconomic releases, including the CPI data postponed from last Friday due to the U.S. government shutdown. Additionally, manufacturing and services PMI figures and the University of Michigan’s Inflation Expectations report will be released concurrently.
